Record food inflation: $ 966 more for your grocery store

After a year of record increase in food prices, 2022 will not offer much respite to consumers.For an average family, the grocery bill could climb $ 966 next year, according to a report published today.

• Read also: Inflation: two thirds of the little confident Canadians that their salary will follow

Photos Chantal Poirier

Food inflation could indeed reach up to 7 % in 2022, write researchers from the Canadian Food Price Report.This is a record because during the other 11 editions, the expected increases were generally 2 to 4 %.

If the price of meat is much higher this year (9.5 %), it should not be the case next year.

"The increase is cyclical and it is rare that we live two years away immediately.We expect a quieter year in 2022, "said report director SylvainCharlebois.

The professor and director of the laboratory in agrifood analytical sciences at Dalhousie University in Halifax, rather identifies dairy products as the main element that will cost more, with an early leap of 6 to 8 %.

"There is the bakery that may also increase, because it has been rather stable in recent years.We expect an increase of 7 %, "he said.

And fruits and vegetables are not to be outdone, with a planned increase of 3 to 5 %, which, "in context, is not that much", according to M.Charlebois.

Difficult for the less wealthy

More consumers will have to devote an even greater share of their budget to food.

"It may be a difficult year for the less wealthy," illustrates the expert.

Because the problem with an increase of $ 966 for a family of four, "is that wages do not follow".

Already, this year, food aid has exploded in Quebec, with 610,000 beneficiaries each month, a leap of 22 %, indicates the food banks of Quebec.

Worse quality

And the food - unlike fixed expenses such as rent or electricity bill - is a budgetary position "where people tend to cut first", observes the budget advisor to the cooperative family economy association of theEast from Montreal, Catherine L'Heux Savoie.

"We fall back on food of less good quality, which has an impact on health," she adds.

It will take better wages

And how many additional income will generate Quebecers to absorb this expected increase in the cost of food?

"It all depends on the configuration of the family," replies the expert in Pascale Taxation Richard, associated with Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton.

For a couple made up of two people who each earn $ 50,000 per year, for example, you will have to get $ 1,600 additional income in order to identify the necessary $ 1,000.Same thing for a couple, only one person works and affects $ 70,000 per year.

Car au Québec, rappelle M^me Richard, le taux d’imposition marginal des gens qui empochent de 49 200 $ à 90 200 $ par année est de 37,12 %.

Some details on the report

Le Journal a demandé à un des auteurs, SylvainCharlebois, de nous parler des points saillants du 12^e Rapport sur les prix alimentaires canadiens.Here are two of his answers.

What is food inflation?

Basically, this is the increase in our budget devoted to food.If inflation in general risks being controlled by the Bank of Canada, food inflation could quickly become a problem for the coming year.

In Canada, food expenses consumed at home have always been kept below 10 % of total consumer spending.

In 2022, it will be the year when we risk crossing this bar forever.We will have to make a bigger place for food in our budget.

C’est la 12^e édition du rapport, et c’est la première fois qu’on parle du vol à l’étalage en épicerie, par exemple, car c’est un phénomène grandissant.

In Brazil, the situation is so serious that they started to put alarm labels on meat pieces in grocery store.

In Montreal, some grocery stores hire dressed in civilian clothes to walk around the store all day and stop the phenomenon.

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— pepperoni gibroni Mon Apr 20 01:44:10 +0000 2020

One of your rare failed predictions for 2021 was the increase in the price of bread, which did not take place.Why ?

It is mainly with the Bread Cartel that we saw the prices increase [in 2019, George Weston and the Loblaw companies admitted having participated in a bread price fixing agreement for more than 10 years].

Wisses are more careful these days, and it's been 4-5 years that the price of bread has not increased that much.

In 2021, George Weston was sold, so there is a little less competition, which could have an impact on the price of bread.

So the bakery may increase this year.We expect an increase of 7 %.

► Methodology

The report is the fruit of the collaboration of Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan and the University of British Columbia.The planned increases are for the whole of Canada and not a particular region.The predictive analysis capacities of Dalhousie University have been applied to establish forecasts, just like those of the University of Guelph, which contributed to pricing by using predictive analysis of automatic learning forThe different categories of food and by predicting changes in the consumer price index (IPC) in 2022.In the previous 11 editions, the report missed the target only once.

People who live alone will also taste

Photo Julien McEvoyLe Montréalais Giueseppe Masprosimone doit déjà composer avec la hausse du prix des aliments et il devra faire des choix encore plus difficiles si les prévisions du rapport s’avèrent exactes.

If families are already facing significant increases in the price of food, the increase scheduled for 2022 will also affect people who live alone.

D’autant, rappelle le professeur SylvainCharlebois, « qu’on s’aperçoit assez rapidement que l’épicerie n’est pas faite pour une personne seule»» et que les gens finissent par « acheter trop et gaspiller plus»».

According to the report on Canadian food prices, a man aged 31 to 50 will have to pay $ 250 more next year to eat.

This sum is roughly the monthly budget for the food of the Montrealer Giueseppe Masprosimone, 46 years old.

The ex-yardman has been on permanent work stoppage for two and a half years and counts on a disability pension to provide for his needs.

"I make a budget, I try to respect it as much as possible.I have misery to buy business good for health, you have to make choices, "he said.

With the planned increases, "it will be even worse and the choices will be fewer and fewer".Already, often, he chooses beans, chickpeas and legumes, less expensive than meat.

Nothing escapes

But he finds that it is the majority of products that cost more "and not just a little".

"Cheese, oil, pasta, it looks like everything has increased overnight.»»

« Quand mon fils est là, je fais plus attention, je fais des plats avec de la viande, des légumes, du riz»», ajoute M.Mastrosimone, who has custody of his 12 -year -old kid every day every other week.

But fresh products do not always fit in its budget.

« Un sac de pommes du Québec à 8 $, c’est carrément du vol»», s’enflamme-t-il.

Chasing the discount

Depuis quelques mois, le quarantenaire n’achète « quasiment que les produits qui sont en spécial»».And, if we trust the report, he will have to get there.

"Often, I go over it when it's not special. C’est plate, mais j’y arrive pas sinon»», plaide-t-il.

When he was a machinist, he won $ 18 an hour and barely reached his food needs as well as to those of his son.

« Ça fait trois ans de ça, imaginez maintenant et ce qui s’en vient»», lance-t-il.

Do you find it expensive?

Do your purchases seem more expensive than ever?

Has the price of a food you buy exploded?

Your budget is affected and you have to make sacrifices?

Tell us about your stories and share your photos testifying to this price increase that strikes all sectors of the economy: Cacouchecher@quebecormedia.com.

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